The San Francisco 49ers have had as much regular season success as any team in the NFC in the last few years. They have advanced to the NFC Championship game four times in five seasons, winning twice.
Unfortunately, they have been unable to get over the hump and win a Super Bowl during that stretch. Both times they did advance, they were defeated by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Heading into the 2024 season, the San Francisco 49ers once again look like a strong team. Finding a weakness on their roster is tough, as they are loaded on both sides of the ball.
They will certainly be in the mix as NFC Champions once again, but the regular season is going to present some challenges. In the opinion of NFL analyst Vic Tafur of The Athletic, it will be challenging enough that they will go under their win/loss total.
The line for the San Francisco 49ers is currently set at 11.5 victories. Tafur believes that they will finish with 11 victories or fewer. There are going to be at some major disadvantages in 2024, which is a major reason for making the decision he did.
“The 49ers have won over 12 games the last two years, and Brock Purdy still has all of his offensive toys. The defense sputtered a little down the stretch last season, but losing Chase Young may actually be a positive.
I also thought they quietly had one of the better drafts in the league. So, what’s the problem? Rest. Or lack thereof. As Warren Sharp points out, the 49ers have the largest net rest disadvantage (-21 days) when you compare schedules.
They play eight games where they will have less rest coming than their opponents — that’s the most in NFL history. (The Ravens, on the other hand, have a plus-16 rest differential). It’s why we will go with 11 wins instead of more,” Tafur wrote.
Winning games in the NFL is difficult. Teams look for any edge that they can find over their opponents. In 2024, opponents for the San Francisco 49ers are going to have a built-in edge.
That kind of rest advantage is going to be difficult to overcome. The San Francisco 49ers are a supremely talented team, but even the greats will suffer from fatigue every now and then.
Nearly half of their schedule this season will be played against teams who have a rest advantage heading into the game. That is going to add up over time, as an extra day here and there could be the difference in a player listed as questionable suiting up or not.
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