Trevor Lawrence brought the Jacksonville Jaguars their first back-to-back .500-or-better seasons since before flat-screen televisions were in most households. As a result, the Jaguars decided he had done enough to earn a five-year, $275 million deal, per Spotrac. With great salaries comes great expectations. However, Trevor Lawrence has not come close to earning such a deal.
The first piece of evidence is the 0-3 record immediately following the deal. Another piece of evidence is the now-viral video of Lawrence spinning in the pocket to avoid nobody in the Monday Night Football showdown against the Bills.
When it comes to accuracy, Lawrence has fallen well below the standard. The Jaguars quarterback has a completion percentage average of 52.8%, per Pro Football Reference. With 70% serving generally as the bar between good and great, the Jaguars quarterback falls well below that bar. Even in terms of his own career standards, his percentage is the lowest of his career, including the season featuring the brief Urban Meyer experiment.
However, his decline hasn’t been a brand-new revelation. In 2023, Lawrence saw his completion percentage, total passing yards, and touchdown ratio slightly decline. In other words, it trended down last season and has hit a cliff this year.
To keep the above .500 streak alive, Lawrence can only lose five more games for the rest of the season. If he fails to do so, the main selling point of why he was signed in the first place will go up in smoke.
Jacksonville Jaguars potentially stuck in Russell Wilson-like limbo with Trevor Lawrence
If the Jaguars ultimately recoil at the deal they just made and ask for a way out, they’ll have to wait until 2029. At that point, per Spotrac, it becomes financially sensible to move on from the quarterback. If they do so earlier, they will trigger a massive dead cap hit.
This season likely would be too early to move on, but if they were to pull the trigger next season, they could trigger $133 million in dead cap. 2028 might make sense with only a $7.5 million dead cap hit, but it would still cost them. If they move on, the Jaguars have the option of doing a salary dump on another team, but that might be more risk than others would want to take on.
The worst part of the situation is that Lawrence’s cap hit is currently as small as it is going to be. Lawrence’s cap hit will balloon every year following 2024 from $15 million to $47 million.
Put simply, the Jacksonville Jaguars made a big gamble on Trevor Lawrence and unless something changes by the end of the 2025 season, the quarterback could be on his final deal of this size in the NFL.
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